Redbird Droppings: Winter Meeting Day 2 Rumors

Redbird Droppings actually has some news from the Winter Meetings Day 2

Day 2 of the Winter Meetings was a little more active for the Cardinals, but it’s mostly from the rumor standpoint; a few more Nolan Arenado tidbits came out and the Cardinals were tied to a surprise player. We also learned the Cardinals will have the 5th pick in the 2025 MLB Draft; I give a quick rundown on the recent picks at #5 and Cardinal top 10 picks.

More Arenado News
The Cardinals have given Arenado’s agent, Joel Wolfe, the OK to talk with teams about potential fits; we’ve also learned that he’s willing to accept trades to the following 6 teams: Angels, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Red Sox. It’s interesting to see the Yankees are not on the list, especially since the Mets are. Both are competitive and in a good position to win; I thought maybe the big market might be a deal killer, but the Mets are in the same market.

There is also more talk about Arenado moving to first base; that’s something that would appeal to the Padres, as Manny Machado is still can handle third base. It also gives flexibility to teams like Angels and Red Sox, teams that could move players so Arenado has a position to play.

The Dodgers might be more of a long-shot, even if that’s the team Arenado has been most linked too; the Dodgers aren’t looking to add Arenado and GM Brandon Gomes has said Max Muncy is their starting third baseman (and Freddie Freeman isn’t moving either). Granted, this could be a negotiating tactic, but the Dodgers are on the hook for a lot of money for a long time.

Cards Have The 5th Pick
The lottery draft happened and the Cardinals will pick 5th overall, up from 13th where they would have drafted based off of record; this is their highest pick since 1998, when they selected J.D. Drew at this slot.

Here’s the last 25 5th overall picks:

A pretty mixed bag, but a couple of gems in Posey, Braun, Teixeira, and Tucker, with some useful players in Wieters, Pomeranz, and Morrow. Outside of the last 3 picks, only 3 players didn’t make the majors. 5 players (20%) were below replacement level with the pick.

And just for fun, here are the Cardinals top 10 picks:

The Cardinals have done fairly well with top 10 picks. Simmons, Drew, and Van Slyke all had good careers; guys like Kennedy and Young were useful players. Only 2 picks that didn’t make the majors, excluding Wetherholt since he was just drafted this past year.

And we’ll finish up the 5th pick talk with a 5 names to keep an eye on.

• Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona: MLB.com has him projected at the #5 pick. He’s a centerfielder with potential 5 tools from the left handed side. 2024 was his breakout season, so 2025 will show if it was real.
• Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC-Santa Barbara: Bleacher Report believes the Cardinals could take Bremner, who has 3 good pitches (change, fastball, slider) and command to go with it, but has bounced between the rotation and bullpen during his college career; it’s expected that 2025 will be full time in the rotation.
• Aiva Arquette, 2B, Oregon State: ESPN (Paywall) lists Arquette as the Cardinals pick; he’s a plus power potential guy that can also hit well. He’s gotten some comparisons to Wetherholt, but J.J. projects to be the better player; he’s also had D.J. LeMahieu with more power comps.
• Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State: USA Today says Arnold is the pick, and that he’s pretty much interchangible with Bremner as the top college arm this spring. He also has the same fastball, change, slider mix of Bremner, but throw from a 3/4 slot on the left side.
• Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS (TX): My MLB Mock Draft goes the high school route with Cunningham. He’s a smaller player that had a plus bat with good bat speed and makes contact. He’s expected to stick at short.

The consensus #1 pick is SS Ethan Holliday from Stillwater HS (OK), son of Matt and brother to Jackson; while I’d love for him to drop to the Cardinals, there is pretty much no way that happens unless 4 other guys become the next Shohei Ohtani.

A Surprise Name Popped Up
The Cardinals have stated they are going to kick the tires on Japanese righty Roki Sasaki, which many found surprising; when you look past the surface, the deal makes a lot of sense for a team looking to be cheap and get younger.

Sasaki, 23, has been posted by his team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, and is one of the top pitching options available. Since he’s under 25 and has less than 6 years experience in a foreign league, he’s considered an amateur and is his bonus will come out of a team’s international spending pool. He’ll also be limited to a minor league deal.

The 2025 International signing window opens January 15 and the Cardinals will have $5,646,200 to spend after last season’s signing of Sonny Gray and a $500k hit to the pool; like the draft pools, there are penalties for going over. Historically, the Cardinals don’t use their full pool and have traded segments of it for established minor leaguers. That said, signing Sasaki will limit the other signings the Cardinals can make on the 15th.

Another plus for Sasaki and St. Louis is his experience with the media; according to his agent Joel Wolfe, the Japanese media has impacted his social media and it’s being suggested that a smaller market might be a plus. St. Louis checks this box.

Wolfe also said that Sasaki doesn’t need a Japanese “mentor” on the team or that he’s limited to West Coast teams, as other Japanese player have in the past. The Cardinals did have So Taguchi, so maybe they could use him as a recruiter for Sasaki.

Do I think the Cardinals will sign him? Not really; the Cardinals have traditionally stayed away from the big name Japanese pitcher and normally go with either the lower tier guys, or American players in the NPB looking to get back to the Majors.

Quick Hits:

• The Orioles have formally announced Tyler O’Neill‘s contract (3 years, $49.5M) and added him to their 40-man.
• The Cardinals announced Holiday Packs are now on sale.
• Nothing else. Arenado was the full news cycle.

I’ll be back tomorrow with the Day 3 wrap up and scouting reports for any Rule V picks made.